Global temperatures expected to remain near record highs through 2030

According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is an 86% chance that a new annual temperature record will be set within the next five years.

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Global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the coming years, highlighting the continued acceleration of climate change. This is the main finding of a new report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and produced by the UK Met Office.

The report estimates an 86% probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded. It also finds a 91% likelihood that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years.

While such temporary exceedances do not necessarily mean that the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach, they provide further evidence of the rapid pace of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme climate events.

The Arctic remains one of the most vulnerable regions. Winter temperatures are projected to rise by around 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average, warming more than three times faster than the global average. Continued declines in Arctic sea ice are also expected, with significant implications for ecosystems and global climate systems.

The report also points to major shifts in precipitation patterns worldwide. Wetter-than-average conditions are forecast in parts of northern Europe, the Sahel and Siberia, while drier conditions are expected across parts of the Amazon basin and several subtropical regions.